Analysts.  We love them.  We hate them.  We love to hate them.  They’re often the industry’s whipping boys.  When their predictions fall into line with the point someone’s making, they have credibility.  When their predictions are to the contrary, they’re idiots.

I liken analysts to weathermen.  They’re right some of the time, but even when they’re right about their predictions, I’m fairly certain some of that is still luck.  More importantly though, they’re wrong about things a lot of the time, yet somehow… they get to keep their jobs.

Imagine if doctors diagnosing cancer had the reliability of a weatherman or a video game industry analyst.  We’d ALL be living as if we had two weeks to live (except for the guys that were actually going to die in two weeks who would likely be convinced they’re perfectly healthy.)

Sorting through today’s particularly runny Twitterrhea, I saw the growing buzz of several people talking about how Janco Partners’ analyst Mike Hickey (Hey, there’s our first cause for concern, even the name of the company he works for sounds janky!) has predicted we’ll see a PS3 price drop announcement “in the next couple days.”

Hickey says he thinks Sony needs to lop off $100 from the price.  He also says “the industry” is expecting this price cut anywhere from April to June.  I’m a little confused.  Is he proposing that Sony will announce a price cut within a few days and then not actually implement it until April or June?  Surely he knows that’ll never happen.  Okay, let’s let that one slide for a little bit, maybe calendar math isn’t his strong suit.  The other interpretation there is that he acknowledges the industry doesn’t believe what he’s saying.  I’m going to put my money on that second interpretation.

Okay, I can’t keep dancing around this any longer because it’s too hilarious.  Whatever credibility you may have given Hickey out of courtesy is about to be crushed so badly there’s a good chance you’ll be able to see the formation of a black hole because he also says he’s hearing “continued speculation” that Sony will be releasing a PS3 sans Blu-ray drive.  For those of you that thought I mistyped that, he’s saying a PS3 that would not be able to play any PS3 software currently sitting in retail stores and presumably only play downloadable content.  Wow.  That’ll happen…  Hey, maybe Sony will take the UMD drive they’re removing from the PSP2 and stick it in this new PS3?  Speculate on that Mike Hickey.  LOL!  Maybe he’s confusing the PSP2 and the PS3?  They both start with “PS” and end with numbers…  maybe it’s just numbers in general that he doesn’t get instead of simply calendar math.

At some point you have to stop and take personal stock in what you’re hearing Mr. Hickey because simply blabbing about what you’re hearing could lead to people thinking there’s actually something important about Paris Hilton, or somehow the economy is going to be fixed in the next couple months.

As an analyst, I would assume you’re supposed to “analyze” what you hear… apply some logic to it, and then do something with that info.  Even if an analyst is right about some of that stuff (eventually a price drop is coming, we don’t need to be analysts to know that much,  the precursors are already starting to show up) when silly little mistakes like leaving a gap of MONTHS between a predicted price drop announcement and an actual implementation of said price drop… well, things like that would make you look silly.  And the PS3 without Blu-ray is like an internal combustion engine car with no gas tank… it makes no sense man.  You should’ve caught that Mike Hickey.

Analysts…  giving weathermen credibility since… well, Janco Partners let Mike Hickey speak.

Popularity: 1% [?]