In case you missed it, read the subject one more time… go ahead… I’ll wait. Yes. Some lucky folks get MGS4 tonight at midnight. Those of us slightly less lucky will need to wait until 10:00am or so Thursday (at the earliest) to get their copy. Then a smaller subset of us will have to wait until after work to play it. The smallest subset of us will likely suffer some debilitating gastrointestinal “anomaly” and wait even longer. I fully plan on keeping my gastrointestinal events within the confines of the 8 minute install, with occasional 1-3 minute breaks between acts.
If you’re like me, you’ve already you’re well into your self-enacted boycott of any MGS4 stories, articles, reviews, screens, videos, rumors, etc. This close to release, I don’t want anything spoiling it for me. I’m sure there are jerks out there that would like nothing better than to spoil this for others… the same folks running around saying things like: He’s been dead the whole movie… Verbal IS Keyser Söze… She’s a man!!! Dumbledore dies on page 596, etc. Yeah, THOSE guys… or as I like to call them, non-PS3 owners.
I got to thinking about MGS4 and its sales expectations and am curious to see how it really pans out. I have no doubt the game is going to sell well, but what I’m wondering is if the game itself is going to sell phenomenally well. Will it sell “look at these sales figures for the PS3… you see that spike right there where the install base jumped so much? That’s MGS4.” well? I’m not sure. One thing I am sure of though is that Sony and Konami know what they’re doing making this game the pack-in bundle for the 80GB unit. The 80GB model is the only one featuring PS2 backwards compatibility and starting Thursday, the only way you can get it if you’ve not gotten one already is by buying it in the MGS4 bundle. The bundle itself is a good value in my opinion, I can’t fault Sony/Konami for it at all, I just can’t help wonder if the MGS4 sales figures will go down in the books with an asterisk beside it just like Motorstorm’s sales have. Motorstorm didn’t sell over 3M copies on its own accord. It’s a good (but flawed) game, but nobody’s fooled by the fact the game sold so well due to the fact it was in the 80GB bundle for so long.
MGS4 marks the first truly AAA marquee third party, established franchise has hit exclusively on the PS3 and I think everyone with a passing interest in the gaming industry will be watching its performance closely. If MGS4 pulls in 3M units sold, I think it’ll be considered a failure. I don’t even pretend to be good an predicting these sort of things, but I would expect at least double that figure in sales by the end of ‘08 for it to be a resounding success. I expect MGS4 to sell well across all regions; I expect it to bring new people to the PS3; and I expect the 80GB+DualShock3+MGS4 bundle to be attractive enough to warrant a purchase by people interested in the PS3 but not necessarily MGS4 on its own. Those three factors should add up to a decent percentage of the install base (not even factoring in that the game itself may be a driving force in increasing that install base by a noticeable amount.)
Armchair quarterbacks, I’m calling on you for your analysis. This is your last day to predict MGS4’s reception. It’s gotten VERY high marks from the review scores that have leaked so far, indicating critical praise is already lined up waiting to be released from embargo. Will the public be as impressed as the press? Will the 4 after the title discourage folks that haven’t played the previous games from signing on?
Sound off (and be warned… posting spoilers in the comments will get your comments nuked and if you MUST do it in the forum, at least use the [SPOILER] tag.
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16 responses so far ↓
1 Keith K // Jun 11, 2008 at 12:07 pm
No no! No mystery Liberty City derived illnesses this time. I took next week off! ho ho!Unfortunately I do have to work tomorrow and friday before reaping the rewards of a video game based vacation, but its better than nothing.
I’ll be picking up the game tomorrow after work.
2 andyg // Jun 11, 2008 at 12:20 pm
lets see if i can actually get my grimey paws on a MGS4 bundle…
**checks credit card**
well, guess i’ll have to throw another couple hundos on that sucka!!
BTW, the Captcha says “hebrew impaired” no lie lmao… nooooo lie…
3 Gareth // Jun 11, 2008 at 12:22 pm
I just know that some idiot is gonna give this a 7/10 to try and be stupidly independent and were gonna end up having to burn him at the stakes.
4 Sean "Rothbart" Workman // Jun 11, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Gareth: The punishment for giving it a 9/10 is “burning at the stake”.
The punishment for giving it a 8/10 is disemboweling (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 7/10 is disemboweling, feeding the entrails back to the person (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 6/10 is having an Xbox 360 shoved up your ass (sideways), disemboweling, feeding the entrails back to the person (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 5/10 is being complete skinned and doused in gasoline, having an Xbox 360 shoved up your ass (sideways), disemboweling, feeding the entrails back to the person (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 4/10 is being lit on fire after being complete skinned and doused in gasoline, having an Xbox 360 shoved up your ass (sideways), disemboweling, feeding the entrails back to the person (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 3/10 is you and your entire family (extended family included) being lit on fire after being complete skinned and doused in gasoline, having an Xbox 360 shoved up your ass (sideways), disemboweling, feeding the entrails back to the person (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 2/10 is enjoying 24 hours of uninterrupted airtime from Lono then you and your entire family (extended family included) being lit on fire after being complete skinned and doused in gasoline, having an Xbox 360 shoved up your ass (sideways), disemboweling, feeding the entrails back to the person (then burning at the stake)
The punishment for giving it a 1/10 is a lifetime sentence of being Adam Sessler’s “Love Slave”. I hear he doesn’t believe in condoms.
In reality, I expect none of these to come into play as the game will end up with an average score in excess of 9/10.
5 Lono // Jun 11, 2008 at 1:21 pm
If anyone has checked out the EDGE magazine’s review on Metacritic, it’s EXTRA stupid.
I’m sure the game is not going to be an IGN 9.9, but I’m sure it’s not an 8 out of 10 either…
6 JakubK666 // Jun 11, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Lone, you do realise that in the world where 75% of the score is hype and 10 is the new 8.5,Edge’s review might be the most reliable source out there?
Don’t jump onto the hype bandwagon…again.
7 Lono // Jun 11, 2008 at 2:06 pm
No, I read the review, I thought it was a bunch of crap. To me at least, the review appears to hate on the game, just to hate on it. There’s a bunch of hyperbole and wanna be fanboy stuff in it. I just found the writing to be EXTRA stupid.
Read it for yourself and be the judge.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10748&Itemid=2
8 Sean "Rothbart" Workman // Jun 11, 2008 at 2:20 pm
JakubK666: That EDGE review was almost worthless… exactly what dinged the two points off their score? I feel like I need a Cliff Notes for that review… like they were trying to be more profound than they really were and it just came off as either blatantly missing something or just over my head.
They do realize games are supposed to be fun, right? Too caught up in the story for my liking… (the review that is… the game? I’ll see soon enough)
9 Kiltman67 // Jun 11, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I’m not sure it’s going to perform well. Maybe it’s just me, but outside of hardcore gamers on the internet, the game has always seemed a little niche.
Not convinced it’s going to shift many PS3s either. As I said, it’s a game for the hardcore, most of whom will have already got themselves a PS3. I say this as someone who held off buying their console until MGS4 and got impatient last January and made the purchase.
I’m not predicting huge failure, but I think anybody whose expecting this to turn around the fortunes of the PS3 are going to be disappointed.
While on the subject, any chance of a MGO gamer night this week? Once I turned off the Auto Aim I had a lot of fun in the beta.
10 SWSilentkiller // Jun 11, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I really want to get a PS3 just for this game ( there are other PS3 games I want but MGS4 is the main reason), When I come up with the money for the PS3 and the game I will buy it. Also I think MGS4 will do really well. I can see it easil surpassing the 3 mil mark
11 Me // Jun 11, 2008 at 3:00 pm
i cant get mgs4 untill after my finals next thursday, or else i will fail all of them
12 JakubK666 // Jun 11, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Okay Rothbart…I wrote a really long comment about it but the reply system ate it….goddamit.
Just to put it simply(and in a way completely unrelated to my other comment),wait till the game comes out,play it till the hype dies then read EDGE’s review once again.See if you’ll feel familiar with any of the criticism.
Because right now, we can argue all day long but the fact is that the game is not even out yet.
13 Lono // Jun 11, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I agree with Rothbart…. I can’t believe I just typed that…
14 Yamster // Jun 11, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Well guys, I can say it’s very fun.
Very fun indeed.
Since I’ve had it for over 12 hours now.
15 Sean "Rothbart" Workman // Jun 12, 2008 at 11:05 am
@Kiltman67: Sony isn’t going to LET MGS4 “fail”. If you want an 80GB PS3, guess what? You’re buying MGS4. Want the biggest exclusive to hit the system yet? Guess what? You’re buying MGS4.
The fact that it’ll sell well on its own AND if you want the only PS3 on the market with PS2 BC right now you’re buying MGS4… well, that just means that sales for this game will continue to roll in as long as they offer the bundles.
16 instant // Jun 13, 2008 at 12:39 am
@kiltman 67 - oh it’ll move consoles don’t worry about that, not like hot cakes if thats what you think but it’ll do it steadily…. the longer people wait and see everyone get it the more they’ll want it… i waited a long time to get my 80G and it was well worth the wait =)
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