If you’ve been living under a low-def rock for the past year or so you may not realize the high-def video format war is in full swing right now. Those of us following (most of us from the sidelines, afraid to choose one format over the other in case one loses completely and our investment is made obsolete) have been waiting to see how this past holiday’s sales went for each camp. We’re only at January 4th and those sales results certainly haven’t been made public yet but a HUGE win for the Blu-ray camp came today as Warner Bros. (along with New Line Home Entertainment and HBO Video) announced their intention to exclusively support Blu-ray over HD-DVD as their high-def video format of choice. To add insult to injury, Warner Bros. said that until they cut off support cold turkey at the end of May ‘08, they’ll artificially delay any HD-DVD movies still in the pipeline so the DVD and Blu-ray versions hit the market first. Consider the screws twisted.
There’s a lot of interesting press going on right now, especially the early on knee-jerk reaction by Toshiba that literally seemed to be a “WTF did Warner just say?!” I’m fairly certain they were quite surprised by Warner’s move. This certainty is based squarely in the fact that their statement said “Toshiba is quite surprised by Warner Bros.’ decision to abandon HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray.” I mean I suppose I might have misinterpreted something in that quote but it really like an unpolished “OMG, we were so BFFs! I H8 U!”
Then as the evening progressed, we learned the CES HD-DVD press conference was literally cancelled. Now between you and me, if I were on Microsoft’s end of the recent “We’re about to make a ‘big announcement’ that may or may not be related to HD-DVD” buzz and I see the last dual format studio pick a side (not mine), Toshiba (one of HD-DVD’s biggest supporters) expressing public astonishment, and the entire HD-DVD event being outright canceled… well, let’s just say that I’d be a little concerned right about now.
Follow the jump for more imminent signs of the world (ok, really just the HD-DVD format) ending…
Hell, even if the HD-DVD part isn’t true about Microsoft’s “big announcement” and it is just a licensing of 360 technology to other partners such as Toshiba (according to the rumors), then they should be equally concerned about their new partner publicly taking it in shorts over this unexpected move.
We were sitting around the Sarcastic Gamer lounge tonight discussing today’s events and as the guy that’s been saying all along that “on paper” Blu-ray has the advantage (I’m not talking technical specs related to audio and video, I’m talking initial and continued superior industry and studio support) and being a happy PS3 owner and strong PS3 supporter, I had a slightly different take than most of the other guys. You see we ALL own 360’s. Many of us own HDTVs and have some money invested in HD-DVD. It’s totally understandable to mentally invest yourself in what you’re financially invested in to, but all along I’ve said that while it was definitely risky for Sony to put the Blu-ray capability in the PS3 (even “forced”) and that if I were Sony I would’ve done the same thing, I’m pretty confident that they won’t get the true credit they deserve.
If this is the beginning of the end, a lot of people (mainly Xbox-owning people) will see this as the consumer product battle that they lost and they’ll be pissed. But if you forget the hubris and cockiness of Sony and think of this whole next-gen console/video format war as part of some large scale RTS game you were playing and it was your move to make… do you play it safe and release a much more scaled down machine or do you analyze, calculate, and go for the BIG win? I predicted it before and I’m still predicting the same damned thing. Blu-ray will end up on top. Sony made the tough/right move for the long haul. This will pan out for them in the long run. For you haters, read back four sentences. I’m “predicting” this. And for all you accusing me making these claims only now that it appears quite possible, well, you clearly don’t know me very well. 
Another aspect I think Sony will have a hard time living down is the “value” aspect. Some people will (and currently do) get it. If HD-DVD goes the way of Betamax (ok that’s just a weird comparison to make), then the addition of Blu-ray playback (and by all accounts “top notch” Blu-ray playback) should increase the PS3’s value. There’s a lot of indifference toward HD video in general from the folks “waiting for one format to win”. It’s clear to me at least that a dual-format player isn’t going to be the “nice” answer because all the people that have already picked sides won’t be able to watch movies only on one format and studios aren’t going to want to supply movies on both formats long term. We need one winner.
HD-DVD folks are quick to point out that Paramount and Dreamworks went HD-DVD exclusive a while back (with the exception of Spielberg produced films), but I would argue that this is very much a bigger deal than that. Warner said in their statement that it was clear to them consumers had chosen Blu-ray. Now while I realize they can “say” anything, a movie studio making format decisions based on consumer sales seems a whole lot smarter than being bought off for $100M (Paramount) and $50 (Dreamworks) for 18 months. My guess is that Warner’s decision was based on very real data indicating what I’ve said all along. The PS3 is going to win the format war (although I feel I should report that an anonymous source says the Blu-ray Disc Association paid Warner $500M to go exclusive, that remains unverified at this point and also points to FOX being paid for their continued Blu-ray exclusivity). Blu-ray now has exclusivity from Disney/Buena Vista, Fox, Warner, New Line Home Entertainment, HBO Video, Sony Pictures, Lions Gate. HD-DVD on the other hand has Paramount, Dreamworks, Universal, and The Weinstein Company.
When you realize that EVERY PS3 can play Blu-ray movies, I don’t care if you’ve got HD-DVD players selling for $99, if someone owns a PS3 and wants to test the HD video waters, they’re going to go buy a _movie_ they can already play rather than a player and a movie in a competing format. And as great as the HD-DVD consortium will tell us HD-DVD hardware flew off the shelves this holiday season, they aren’t touching the PS3’s sales numbers. When you factor in that the PS3 is trending upwards (and still relatively lousy compared to the 360 and Wii, which should pick up in 2008 based on a much nicer prospective year than 2007 in terms of gaming), you see what an uphill battle HD-DVD has… I’d question whether it would drastically affect their chances if they gave away players. At this stage in the game, face it or not, Blu-ray will get more “accidental” or “secondary” adopters than intentional high-def adopters of both formats period. And when there are millions of PS3s capable of playing Blu-ray movies and people start buying more and more HDTVs, Blu-ray movie sales will increase exponentially.
I don’t know about you, but I’ll anxiously be awaiting Sunday’s keynote from Bill Gates. My guess is there’s some scrambling going on in Redmond at this very moment…
UPDATE: For the record, Warner is denying they received any form of payoff to go Blu-ray exclusive. An executive from Warner said “This [decision] was one hundred percent around what makes the most sense for the consumer, the retailer and the industry. This was not a bidding war. This was all about what was best, strategically, for us.”
UPDATE: 1:00 cst, Just in from Kotaku, The HD-DVD Promotion Group has postponed its CES 2008 press conference to Sunday, in light of the most recent news.
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25 responses so far ↓
1 Alecsander_C // Jan 5, 2008 at 1:13 am
I agree, BluRay is gonna win.
Simply for a fact that it sounds like a whole new thing instead of an improved old version, hell I’d rather have VHS than HD-Betamax, wouldn’t you? (MY only weird comparisson moment).
2 irish boy90 // Jan 5, 2008 at 7:15 am
dvd could win when people realise you can’t tell the difference between HD and normal TV
i wanted hd dvd to win, just to mess up sony with their expensive blue ray player ^^
3 Caleb154 // Jan 5, 2008 at 11:42 am
Ok my brother works for an adult movie bussiness in Montreal
they went with HD DVD because they said HD DVD takes 30 mins to burn the disk where as blu-ray takes 4 .5 hours
as a half intelligent person i know eventually burners will be comming as a standard product for both of these products i think the reason so many companies are going blu-ray is to help fight pirating
person i think blu-ray may initally win the movie battle but once it actually becomes a media battle HD DVD will win
(i have both a PS3 and 360 with HD drive)
4 Nick // Jan 5, 2008 at 12:31 pm
If the majority of the consumer market has HD-DVD capable hardware, why would switching to blue-ray be a more “strategical” move for any company?
Although you might be right about blue ray taking over in the long run, because technology does change rapidly, I think any claims to see a sharp influx in blue ray fall under wishful, or idealistic thinking.
On a more realistic level, most people still own HD-DVD capable hardware, so must stuff being spit out will still be HD-DVD, because above all: these companies are selling products. The legacy they leave behind seconds to that.
5 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 5, 2008 at 1:01 pm
@Caleb154: “real” movie studios don’t “burn” their discs, they “press” them. Not to slight the adult movie industry in Montreal or anything though…
@Nick: Did you _read_ my article? The majority have Blu-ray players (even if only by including PS3 sales). The number of PS3s sold this Xmas DRASTICALLY outnumbers the number of $199 or $99 HD-DVD players… _drastically_
6 Caleb154 // Jan 5, 2008 at 1:25 pm
I understand real movie studios can do it better and faster (adult movie companies arn\\\’t so technically advance)
what i was pointing out is that if those are the time differences in burning and im going to burn a copy of a movie i made with my friends or burn a file for work (and for some reason its larger then 8.5 gbs) I think 4.5 hours to burn is a long time i personally dont care either way if someone can prove to me that you can burn a blu-ray disk in your house just as fast as an HD DVD then ok but right now the only proff i have is i have been to my brothers work place
7 RedRedKrovy // Jan 5, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Let’s all take a page from the history books. To be more specific the VHS and Betamax war. Betamax was superior to VHS but they still lost the war. Why? Because VHS was less expensive and more widely available. So though the Hi-Def war is still in full swing I think the winner will be the one who can offer more product for a lower price so I’m throwing my lot in with HD-DVD as long as it’s supporters don’t freak out and jump ship at the first sign of trouble.
8 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 5, 2008 at 6:13 pm
@Caleb154 - I don’t know what they were doing burning a disc in 4.5 hours, but I can pretty much definitively say that the “disc burning porn industry” won’t affect either camp’s performance.
Now it has been said that retrofitting DVD production lines to turn out HD-DVD discs was cheaper/easier, but that would (I think) mainly be an initial benefits as factories only need to be retrofit _once_ and then it’s done.
As with DVDs and CDs before them, burning speeds will increase, burn times will decrease, media costs will decrease, etc. And that’s regardless of format. My first CD burner was a single speed burner… 74 minutes for a full disc. CD did just fine in the end…
9 clstirens // Jan 5, 2008 at 7:09 pm
You must not remember, rothbart, that part of the reason VHS succeded is because of the adult industry. The cheaper to make VHS were supported by them, and so a lot of perv…. customers chose VHS simply because most of the good stuff wasn’t on Betamax. Also they could watch their other movies on it too…
I don’t care who “wins” the format war, I haven’t invested either way. I just think that Hd-dvd is far from down and out.
10 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 5, 2008 at 7:15 pm
@clstirens: But this isn’t exactly the same… he’s talking about “homemade and burned” movies… that’s _got_ to be a tiny fraction of the content being provided.
Also, it’s important to realize that Blu-ray offers porn as well (ie. officially as in the “pressed” kind).
From the start Blu-ray has had superior studio and manufacturer support. They were later to market and their players are more expensive, yes but when HD-DVD “bought out” Paramount and Dreamworks, that wasn’t a “coup” or anything, that was swaying it back to a more (but not quite) level playing field. Having Warner, New Line and HBO (as well as a recommitment by Fox) takes the “somewhat leaning in Blu-ray’s favor” status-quo and puts the ball _way_ back in Blu-ray’s court. Apple will be shipping Blu-ray equipped Macs soon and all the yuppies and wannabe Scorseses will get it ingrained in their head that “Blu-ray” is the next “thing” combined with the continued improvement of PS3 sales and install base.
I’m _very_ anxious to see what the HD-DVD guys say at their [rescheduled] press conference.
11 clstirens // Jan 5, 2008 at 7:36 pm
True. I cannot argue that : )
I had no Idea Apple was backing Blu-ray. Thats a bit of a…. Yeah, thats bad news for Hd-dvd. I know a lot of trendsters that will be swayed JUST by that.
12 NoneOfYourBusiness // Jan 5, 2008 at 10:27 pm
I base my purchases on names.
HD-DVD….sounds like some guy made this name up in the afternoon right before a meeting because he spent the night before drunk in a gutter.
Blu-ray Disc….sounds dangerous….sounds like it’ll steal your girl if you leave the player alone with her too longl….sounds like…”I’m so cool, I’m better then spelling itself.”
13 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 6, 2008 at 12:11 am
I suggest you all look at this (now somewhat outdated) graphic showing support for the two formats. This is from over a year ago. To my knowledge, the only “shifts” have been from movie studios. Paramount and Dreamworks moved to HD-DVD exclusivity for a period of 18 months (~14 months left in that agreement) and Warner moved to Blu-ray exclusively (with no “buy-off” or time limit indicated).
Look at the number of manufacturers that picked Blu-ray over HD-DVD. Look at the number of movie studios that picked Blu-ray over HD-DVD.
http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m95/rothbart_photos/pana_13.jpg
I don’t really care that HD-DVD has dirt-cheap players, dual-format DVD/HD-DVD discs, or an add-on for my Xbox 360. I care who’s going to be putting out content and making best use of the capabilities of the next gen formats and short of remotely syncing movies with other people’s players via the internet on HD-DVD’s side, all things (to me) point to Blu-ray. They have virtually the SAME audio/video specs, they offer the same spectrum of codecs, with the recent upgrade to Profile 1.1, Blu-ray now has the PIP abilities HD-DVD had. The movies are priced in the same ballpark. There’s really no glaring advantage that I see HD-DVD has over Blu-ray… Blu-ray has almost double the capacity per disc as well.
I realize people really honestly “hate” Sony and don’t like to see what will surely be considered a huge win for them, but I think those people need to get over it. The best thing that can happen (regardless of which one it is) is for this format war to be over. Blu-ray scored big this weekend, I hope it’s over soon.
14 9mmpreacher // Jan 6, 2008 at 2:17 am
The sad truth is that the format war will be heavily influenced by the pornography industry. As with VHS and Betamax as was mentioned before the VHS was cheaper to produce therefore it became the winner though less superior, the deciding industry for VHS? The porno industry, and as a matter of fact some producers in that industry have already stated that HD-DVD is their pick.
Hope is not lost on HD, not yet anyway.
15 Lono // Jan 6, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Ya always have to bring porn into the mix, don’t cha preacher… Geez…
16 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 6, 2008 at 2:15 pm
@9mmpreacher: Porn won’t be as important this time around as it was when VHS/Beta went at it… back then home video was the only way to get porn video into people’s homes. Now we have a little thing called the internet (yeah, I know the internet “technically” existed back then, but not for consumers).
Not to mention that porn is currently on Blu-ray _and_ HD-DVD. Dave’s mom told me, so it MUST be true.
17 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 6, 2008 at 4:04 pm
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/06/live-coverage-from-the-philips-press-event/
The Philips guy just “accidentally?” leaked that Target (the 2nd largest retailer in the US) is going Blu-ray exclusive. That’s got to help HD-DVD’s chances… < — that’s for the guy that said this article wasn’t “sarcastic” enough.
18 Minbad // Jan 6, 2008 at 4:04 pm
just get a freakin’ PS3 :p
19 Harag // Jan 6, 2008 at 5:32 pm
another thing that needs to be realised is that this isnt JUST sonys camp there are alot of other companys pushing blue ray toshiba and microsoft are pretty much on there own against the world on this one
20 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Jan 6, 2008 at 9:46 pm
@Harag: Very true, but the Xbots of the world prefer seeing it as “The World” vs Sony.
21 Harag // Jan 6, 2008 at 11:27 pm
@rothbart: sad but true and all i have to say to them is
HAR HAR PS3 IS KICKING YOUR ASS!!!!!
22 leiffe // Jan 7, 2008 at 2:53 pm
for all the idiots here that keeps arguing that the porn industry single handedly placed vhs as the winner, (get your facts updated), vhs had a larger capacity than beta, rewinds faster, and cheaper.
23 leiffe // Jan 7, 2008 at 2:57 pm
to all the stupid people here saying that the porn industry is the main driving force that made vhs victorious, you’re mistaken, you are wrong. it all comes down to the most important thing at the time. storage and price. vhs had a larger capacity and was cheaper. and the rest is history.
24 yukon cornel // Jan 7, 2008 at 4:22 pm
For all you guys out there that think the porn industry is going to sway the HD vs Blu battle, your so very wrong. The big porn producers like Vivid are losing HUGE revenues to the amateur porn sites on the internet that offer monthly subscriptions for direct download. The amatuer sites have changed the porn business model in the same way VHS did when it put the adult theatres out of business.
25 gringo hairpiece // Jan 8, 2008 at 10:45 am
Well I’m going to pin my colours to “none of the ab0ve” because I suspect that neither format will win this war as they will both be steamrollered by the “on demand” options and I think it was a very smart move by Microsoft to start making films available through XBox Live.
Most of the general public (gamer geeks and AV nerds excepted) are going to look at these and say I just spent thousands on DVD, why do i want to spend thousands more replacing them with something that’s a “bit” better than the thing i’ve already got. Because let’s face it Blu-ray and HD-DVD aren’t that big an improvement on DVD, not like DVD was over video.
I have around 170-180 DVD’s and I certainly don’t intend moving for a very long time, if at all.
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