Source: The Economist
Take a good long look at the graph to the right. According to an analyst for The Economist, Piers Harding-Rolls, that is how the console sales will look four years from now.
Its graphs like these that reaffirm my decision to never, ever listen to what analysts have to say about video games. They are always completely uninformed and usually way off.
Keep reading to see why anybody with an elementary school degree and a box of crayons could make a more realistic graph than Mr. Harding-Rolls.
First off, no sales chart line ever stays that smooth. They fluctuate up and down constantly based on time of year, games released, and price cuts. To see what I mean, take a look at this graph showing weekly sales for the past year. There’s not a smooth line on there. So why does Harding-Roll show the period from 06-07 as nothing but smooth lines?
Secondly, look at the point right after ‘07 ends for the PS3. According to this guy, PS3 sales are going to magically double one month from now and stay that way for four years! Doing some elementary math I was able to calculate that Sony has been averaging 500k consoles per month for their first year (6 million divided by 12 months). That means in order for Sony to hit the line he is predicting and sell 70+ million consoles by 2011, they will have to start selling 1.33 million consoles EVERY month for 48 consecutive months! Everybody all together now: AHAHAHAHA, yeah right. Sony has a better chance of Bill Gates selling Microsoft to them than reaching those sales numbers.
Just for fun I’ve created a list of scenarios that would have to happen for Mr. Harding-Rolls’ graph to come true.
- Sony cuts the price of the PS3 in half.
- 360 and Wii NEVER have a price cut.
- HD-DVD loses the format war…tomorrow.
- Sony stops producing all other Blu-ray players so that the PS3 is the only one on the market.
- Sony buys all of the AAA developers including EA, Activision, and Bungie.
There ya go, Piers Harding-Rolls, all it will take for your prediction to come true is those five little things happening.
Seriously, all you analysts out there, STOP trying to predict something you obviously have no clue about. You’re just embarrassing yourselves.
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18 responses so far ↓
1 Sean "rothbart" Workman // Dec 11, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I think he’s sampling his data annually, not per week… that way he’s basically averaging all those ups and downs into more “line-like” data…
And as much as I mock analysts myself, I’m inclined to at least _partially_ agree with him. The biggest difference between what he’s predicting and what I’m predicting is that I think the 360 will do better than he shows and the Wii will do worse.
I’ll be the first to admit Sony’s been going with a rolling “wait until” attitude toward their return to the crown, but I _seriously_ think 2008 will be the year things get shaken up.
If the Wii gets some “serious” games (both in quantity and quality; and most importantly some that aren’t first party) then they really could turn into the force to be reckoned with instead of the fad waiting to crash.
If Sony can continue to improve their library, features, and (eventually at some point in 2008) further reduce their price, I think they’ll keep adding more and more pressure. Frankly, I’m _still_ surprised the 360’s install base isn’t higher than it is now… there are tens and tens of millions of last gen gamers that haven’t bought a 360 or PS3. If Sony steps up and delivers, there’s a TON of brand-loyal PS2 owners that could bolster Sony’s next-gen install base. Microsoft’s in a position where they’re in first place (for now), but it’s really not _that_ impressive when you compare their install base to where people thought it should be by now.
Final thought… any analyst that thinks they’re predicting with any certainty 3-4 years out in an industry like this is simply just guessing. It may be a slightly educated guess, but it’s a guess nonetheless.
2 Yousty // Dec 11, 2007 at 3:31 pm
I’ll definitely agree that 360 should have a lot larger install base than it does right now.
But with strong rumors of MGS going multiplatform coupled with the fact that 360 can afford to drop their price (I’m guessing it’ll happen right before GTA releases) a lot more than Sony can, I don’t see how Microsoft isn’t going to end up still on top by the end of next year, especially if they get their RRoD hardware issues taken care of once and for all.
3 Brian // Dec 11, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Ummm… Have you followed video game sales trends beyond this last year? You know that the PS2 was in the same position when it came out? This guy is saying the PS3 after 6 years is going to have sold 50 million less than PS2s. 70 million consoles isn’t all that much. Oh wait. It is for Xbox 1s… Never mind.
LOL
4 Yousty // Dec 11, 2007 at 3:52 pm
I think we can all agree that the PS3 isn’t going to have anywhere near the selling success that the PS2 did. If you think that, then you need to come back down to earth.
Here’s a bunch of reasons why the PS3 will NEVER EVER be as successful as the PS2:
1. PS2 cost $300 at launch, PS3 cost $600. Even now the low end PS3 is $100 more expensive than the PS2 ever was.
2. The competition is a lot tougher this time around. Both Microsoft and Nintendo are performing very well, unlike last generation.
3. The Wii and 360 will always be cheaper than the PS3.
4. Everybody wanted DVD, not everybody wants Blu-ray.
5. Sony has lost almost every exclusive game franchise that made them such a dominant force.
It took the PS2 4+ years to reach the 70 million consoles sold mark. You’re trying to say that the Ps3 will be able to do that in just 5 years after reading all of the reasons above? There is not a snowball’s chance in hell of that happening. I’ll bet my life’s savings on it.
5 irish boy90 // Dec 11, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Wii have so many consoles sold I am sure they will get some good third party action.
the 360 is also going to be getting Gears of war 2
that will really boost them if they fall down a bit.
I think sony might not make a big comeback, maybe a small one but i don’t see it passing out anyone in 08 anyway
6 smartguy // Dec 11, 2007 at 5:10 pm
first @ jousty…. mgs on 360 hahahaha now you should wake up from your dream
this is just generic i love my red ring post, the only down side to the ps3 is cost, for the next 12 month sony will pound into reality the value of the ps3… 360 is going to suffer this next year…..
7 saphira963 // Dec 11, 2007 at 6:30 pm
I’ll have you know Doc that i’ve seen class A elementary school graphs in my day.. maybe you might want to rephrase it to an infant degree….
8 LuckyEMS // Dec 11, 2007 at 7:24 pm
yes the 360 will suffer next year will all those PS3 exclusives like Haze/GT5 and MGS5 it will be awesome they will have as many good exclusive games as they did this year and that all depends on what the final products are like.
Orgying over a game that youve only seen abit of gameplay footage of is pointless. Werent you PS3 fanboys goin crazy for Lair and how awesome it was and then the reviews came in.
MGS5 could look great but lack everywhere else.
9 Doug // Dec 11, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Dont forget everyone that buys a 360 buys 3 becasue they die from rrod and other things. The 360 install base isnt as big as it looks.
10 Lono // Dec 11, 2007 at 9:18 pm
@ Doug: You get dumb post of the day!
11 zbiggie // Dec 11, 2007 at 11:42 pm
@Lono: So true so true.
The only thing that I may think that would help PS3 Sales in a major way is if Blue-Ray wins the format war. This way Sony may instead of selling the BR player as the only player option for BR discs. They may end up pushing the PS3 as a Player replacement. That would work as a home entertainment system (which it is already) that can do anything from running the internet (which all dvd players can not do currently), to playing music, older dvd’s. And on top of that they would loose some money because they are currently loosing money on the PS3’s, but tell if people do start buying these things as a BR player replacement. How hard would it be to go and push games among other things to people, hell, this could probably become what M$ tried to do with Windows Media edition.
But then again all that being said M$ could easily do the same thing with their system. And for them it doesn’t really matter if HD-DVD wins or not since its not an actual part of the system, just an add on. The only problem with this is that people see this more of a gaming system then a home entertainment system. Seriously how many people really take advantage of the fact that the original xbox had a dvd playback option. I know I didn’t, but then again it was cheaper to by a dvd player then it was to buy a xbox remote
12 seelan // Dec 12, 2007 at 3:25 am
[quote]First off, no sales chart line ever stays that smooth. They fluctuate up and down constantly based on time of year, games released, and price cuts. To see what I mean, take a look at this graph showing weekly sales for the past year. There’s not a smooth line on there. So why does Harding-Roll show the period from 06-07 as nothing but smooth lines?[/quote]
The lines are smooth because it is a cumulative graph. Set yours to “cumulative sales” and you will see smoother lines.
Having said that: I don’t believe the predictions either. Microsoft has theoretically solved the RROD problem, and in a few years people will trust the brand again. You will be surprised knowing how little people even know about the problem. Only people that read internet forums and stuff like that are aware of the problem. No TV coverage, no magazines showed what happened.
If the bluray wins the hi def war, it will be standard. That means, Microsoft will be able to do an external bluray player for the xbox, just like the HD-DVD player.
I have all 3 consoles, but I have to say: I play the xbox the most. Wii and PS3 are there only for exclusives. I like how quiet the ps3 is, but what can I say, I’m a gamescore whore, and if the same game is available for ps3 and xbox 360 I buy the 360 version just because of that (rumble problem is solved, I imported a Dualshock 3)
13 Minbad // Dec 12, 2007 at 3:39 am
Alright, fortune telling (I’ll stick up to the year 2008 only though, if you’ll excuse me) : At the end of the year PS3 “wins” on a very short hand, due to the lack of games on Wii (yes that will happen, I saw it in one my balls :)), and indeed no further technical ingame improvement possible from the 360. All that of course :
1. provided we see enough Cell using games, and 2. not before the END of 2008, after we pass things like Mario Kart on the Wii, or non exclusive 360/PS3/PC games galore, etc.
14 JJDZX // Dec 12, 2007 at 7:24 pm
ok first off Lucky EMS it’s MGS4 not 5 u idiot. second the PS3 will have great chances at passing the xbox360 in the future. third the 360 isn’t gonna have that much exclusives next year and Gears of War 2 might go multi-console because epic and midway is going to make the PS3 their main SKU. in 2008 u will see the difference of 360 games and PS3 games i mean DMC4 already looks better on the PS3. so when the tides change ill be laughin
15 Zoologist // Dec 13, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Oddly enough, according to the fluctuating graph that was linked to by the creator of the article, the PS3 is outselling the 360 right now. God forbid the economist be right about video games (no, that was not sarcasm, seriously, no one wants them to be right about video games)
16 DimWit // Dec 14, 2007 at 2:29 am
Also PS3 can actualy afford a price drop while Wii and 360 cant. Ps3 has got more support from gaming companys then what 360 and Wii have.
17 Rodney // Dec 25, 2007 at 10:11 pm
The Ps3 has free internet
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